South Africa v France: Settled Springboks tackle vengeance-fueled France

South Africa have won their last five matches in a row at the Stade de France, but it is the one three years ago, by just a single point, in the quarter-final of the Rugby World Cup on home soil that rankles the most for France, and they will be desperate to right that wrong.

The Boks have won nine of their last 10 Tests against Les Bleus, and you have to go back to 2005 to find the last time they lost at the Stade de France. However, Springbok head coach Rassie Erasmus knows as well as anyone that past form means little in a match between two of the sport's heavyweights.

While France will be seeking vengeance and looking to prove to the world they deserve to be considered one of the best teams in rugby, South Africa have other concerns.

The Springboks go into round five of the Nations Championship level on points with New Zealand in the southern section and, with New Zealand expected to beat Wales comfortably in Cardiff on Saturday, a lot is riding on the clash in Paris for South Africa.

France's fly-half crisis

France's big story is their backline after Romain Ntamack picked up a shoulder injury against Fiji. The additional absences of Matthieu Jalibert, Thomas Ramos and Antoine Hastoy have left France head coach Fabien Galthie short at fly-half.

He has taken a bold risk, compensating by placing star player and captain Antoine Dupont at No 10 for the first time in his Test career, with Maxime Lucu at scrum-half. Dupont plays there semi-regularly for Toulouse, but this will be a different challenge against a fully-loaded Springbok side.

Gregory Alldritt has been recalled at No 8 and hooker Julien Marchand returns to add some extra size to the pack, with Francois Cros moving to the flank.

South Africa focus on continuity over rotation

Erasmus has made just two changes to his match-23 from the side that beat Italy 66-7, with Wilco Louw coming into the front row, and Cobus Reinach taking the utility bench spot in place of Grant Williams.

Rounding out the powerful forward pack are Lood de Jager and Ruan Nortje in the second row, with Siya Kolisi, Pieter-Steph du Toit and Jasper Wiese in the back row. The Springboks have never been afraid to show their hand, and this team makes it clear they are looking for dominance up front and in the set pieces.

The aim is to field a settled group, familiar with the cauldron in Paris, that can build momentum going into the business end of the Nations Championship.

Lineups

Springboks starting XV: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Morne van den Berg, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Lood de Jager, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche

Replacements: 16 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Thomas du Toit, 19 Franco Mostert, 20 Cameron Hanekom, 21 Paul de Villiers, 22 Cobus Reinach, 23 Manie Libbok

France starting XV: 15 Theo Attissogbe, 14 Aaron Grandidier-Nkanang, 13 Kalvin Gourgues, 12 Yoram Moefana, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Antoine Dupont (captain), 9 Maxime Lucu, 8 Gregory Alldritt, 7 Cameron Woki, 6 Francois Cros, 5 Mickael Guillard, 4 Florian Verhaeghe, 3 Sipili Falatea, 2 Julien Marchand, 1 Jean-Baptiste Gros.

Replacements: 16 Peato Mauvaka, 17 Rodrigue Neti, 18 Régis Montagne, 19 Charles Ollivon, 20 Tom Staniforth, 21 Esteban Capilla, 22 Axel Desperes, 23 Emilien Gailleton.

Key battlegrounds

The scrum and set piece

France have selected big forwards that like to scrum and will be an intriguing battle for the world-class trio of Louw, Marx and Nche and, if they can get on top early, it could turn into a tough evening for the French pack with Gerhard Steenekamp, Jan-Hendrik Wessels and Thomas du Toit waiting to reinforce the Springboks from the bench.

Dupont at 10

Slotting Dupont in at flyhalf is a high-risk, high-reward strategy for France because it puts their best player in a position to dictate the game, but if the Springboks' rush defence can pressure him and get on top of him, it could take him out of the game entirely.

If he finds space, there is little question he will be able to unlock South Africa's defence, and the French back three can hurt them, but there is little doubt he will be targeted early and often.

The breakdowns

Alldritt's return gives France a carrier who wins collisions, with Cameron Woki and Cros completing a back row that will need to get the better of Kolisi, Du Toit and Wiese.

The experienced Springboks trio knows how to slow the ball and win turnovers, and South Africa have focused heavily on reducing the number of penalties they concede.

Whoever controls ruck speed controls the tempo of the match, and the Boks need slow French ball more than usual to give their defence time to close down Dupont.

Verdict

On form, continuity and record, the Boks are the favourites, but France are always dangerous in front of their home crowd and should not be discounted easily.

The fly-half reshuffle gives them little room for error, and they will need Dupont to settle into his new role quickly. Expect a physical, forward-led contest that will stay extremely close until the dying minutes and will likely be decided by whether Dupont can start dictating the flow before the Springbok pack builds enough pressure.